2026 energy trends you need to know about
The three top drivers influencing your energy bills
This article has been written by Tom Parsons, Commercial Director at Good Energy. It was originally published by the Major Energy User’s Council.
The energy industry is undergoing rapid transformation. The changes we’re experiencing today will impact prices, energy security and our fight against climate change for decades to come.
Part of my job, alongside many others at Good Energy, is to steer these changes in the right direction with Ofgem and the government, while creating compelling propositions for our business customers to take control of their costs and carbon footprint.
Here are three major changes that are likely to have a big impact on energy bills and budgets as we move through 2026 and beyond.
A changing political tide: net zero under threat
For the last two parliaments, Westminster has agreed on the net zero destination and argued about the route. Today, the consensus has splintered – Labour is pushing for faster delivery, while the Conservatives are considering scrapping the legal basis for the 2050 goal.
Reform UK has also entered the debate with its anti–net zero stance. But this year’s party conference season brought a renewed push from the Green Party, challenging the UK to be ambitious and lead the way once again.
These differing viewpoints create uncertainty for investors, policymakers, industry stakeholders and businesses. Uncertainty is rarely good for the energy sector, which relies on decades-long planning rather than short political cycles.
There’s still a long way to go until the next election, but for now the industry is largely keeping to the plan of showcasing the UK as a climate leader and creating the jobs and economic growth that come with it.
Stabilising wholesale energy costs, rising non-commodity costs
For the past 30 years, much of an energy manager’s role has been watching wholesale markets and choosing the best time to buy power – a strategy that has consistently kept industrial and commercial bills under control.
Wholesale costs have long been the biggest component of energy bills. When Russia invaded Ukraine, the resulting price spikes caused bills to soar.
However, in recent years non-commodity costs have also risen steadily. As we transition to net zero, this trend will continue as new infrastructure is built to support distributed generation.
The good news is that, over time, bills should come down as renewables increase. More renewable generation means cheaper electricity overall – even if it costs more to move that power around the grid.
The challenge is that billpayers, in particular businesses, are being asked to fund system upgrades that won’t deliver tangible benefits until later this decade. One key factor is the transmission network. Transmission Network Use of System (TNUoS) charges are forecast to increase by nearly 100% as soon as April 2026. While not yet finalised, this single cost rise alone could push business energy bills up by over 5%.
The rise of Hourly Matching
A vital way to keep energy bills low is by closely balancing renewable supply with demand. When businesses align their consumption with renewable generation, balancing costs stay lower. When that alignment slips, the grid incurs curtailment costs – paying to turn off wind turbines – or relies on turning on expensive, carbon-intensive gas peaking plants, which drive up prices for the whole system.
To address this, new products and reporting standards are emerging to make that balance more transparent. The GHG Protocol – the world’s most widely used carbon reporting framework – is currently consulting on updates to include hourly matching.
The current system, based on annual matching using REGOs, is no longer fit for purpose. It provides a backward-looking view that creates a false sense of completion rather than encouraging active balancing. The proposed update would require larger companies to disclose their hourly matching score.
Good Energy’s Hourly Matching solutions
In 2023, Good Energy launched the world’s first hourly matching product for all our half-hourly metered customers – provided as standard, at no extra cost.
This means all our customers are already compliant with the proposed GHG Protocol Scope 2 changes.
With our in-house trading team and a growing portfolio of over 3,000 UK-based renewable generators, our customers achieve an average hourly matching score of 90%. This allows them to demonstrate genuine green credentials and stand out as sustainability leaders.
We’ve also introduced Hourly Matching Credit, an innovative scheme that rewards businesses and generators for aligning supply and demand. This not only reduces carbon but also helps bring down bills for commercial customers doing the right thing.
Opportunities for forward thinking businesses
As 2026 approaches, the UK energy landscape is entering a pivotal phase. Political uncertainty, evolving cost structures and the shift toward smarter, real-time energy matching will all shape how businesses manage their energy usage.
While challenges lie ahead, there are huge opportunities for forward-thinking organisations to stay ahead of the curve and keep a lid on energy costs.
At Good Energy, we’re here to help businesses navigate these changes with 100% renewable power, innovative hourly matching products, commercial solar installations and expert guidance to make energy cleaner and more cost-effective. With the right support, you can take control of your energy future and drive meaningful progress toward net zero.
