The weather review
October is often a month that tries to cling to the disappearing summer. In many ways this was not to be as the remnants of Hurricane Lorenzo and other tropical systems from the Atlantic spent their last legs hitting the UK with heavy rain and high winds. The low pressure from these systems kept the skyline changeable, with sunshine contributing to relatively warm daytimes that quickly chilled off at night. Temperatures were 1-2 degrees above average, lowering heating demand for gas, with wind supply plenty of clean energy to the UK grid.
In November, forecasts suggest that temperatures will drop, with gas demand picking up in line with heating. After this frosty, wintery start, temperatures are likely to fall more in line with seasonal averages for the rest of the month. Wind was below expected output from the start of November, rising higher towards the end of the month. Solar output is expected to be below average.
Both of these factors point to increased gas demand for both power and heating during the first two weeks, with the higher winds helping provide supply power at the end of the month.