As March arrived, signalling the long-awaited departure of winter, temperatures began their ascent, rising by an average of 2C throughout the month. Alongside this welcome warmth, solar generation also surged, although it struggled to exceed levels previously observed.   

March 2024 was warmer than average, with just four days where the UK temperature was below the 30-year average, and this level was regularly exceeded by up to 5C. Combined with healthy wind generation, the comfortable fundamental picture aided the downwards trend.  

Looking to April, forecasts suggest a similar picture to March in terms of temperatures, easing the European gas balance. In particular, the first weekend of the month was set to see temperatures almost double the average for this time of year, and wind spiking at 245% of typical generation. As such, when combined with muted weekend power demand, we expect to see negative intraday balancing prices over this period.  

On the wider market, hydro reserves are close to the 10-year maximum surrounding the Alps, with strong levels also observed in the Nordics, driving expectations for strong power exports from Norway and France throughout the month. 

In summary, the weather fundamentals suggest a comfortable supply situation for the coming month, although as always forecasts are subject to change.