What a week it’s been. With only 10 weeks remaining, the pressure is building fast. There’s a bit of good news, but first, a bit of background.

World leaders have been holding bilateral talks in the run up to the Copenhagen meeting for several months. The idea is to try and reach a vague agreement to reach an agreement, before the details are thrashed out in Denmark in December.

Progress so far has been slow however, as two sides of the world are at odds not on what needs to be achieved, but on how it should be achieved. Rich nations are gradually coming round to the idea of cutting emissions but are demanding that developing countries reciprocate. Developing countries are saying “hang on a minute, we’re only in this mess because of your over-consumption and fossil fuel burning; our emissions are high because you’ve moved your factories over here; and we don’t have the money to spend on expensive new technologies. We have to put our own growth first.” “Good point,” say the rich nations, but we’re not sure we want to just give you money to help.

Now rumours are flying that rich nations may not even agree on how to structure climate reduction schemes, which could lead to further fractures. In the US, President Obama’s plans for a Green New Deal are being stalled and undermined by Congress and the Senate, with huge pressure coming from big polluting industries.

Gordon Brown is going to Copenhagen
Christian Aid will be delighted with the news that Gordon Brown is ready to attend the Copenhagen talks, after a steady campaign to make sure world leaders are involved in the dialogue. With recognition that the signs are pointing to a stalemate Mr Brown has made clear that he is prepared to step in, and is encouraging other world leaders to do the same.

"The negotiations are proceeding so slowly that a deal is in grave danger. Securing an agreement in Copenhagen will require world leaders to bridge our remaining differences and seize these opportunities. But I believe it can be done. And if it is necessary to clinch the deal, I will personally go to Copenhagen to achieve it." Gordon Brown in Newsweek

This follows Brown’s proposal for the rich world to initiate a $100 billion fund to help developing nations adapt to climate change and grow with renewable power instead of dirty coal. It’s been welcomed by environmentalists, but hasn’t been discussed adequately by developed nations.

Ed Miliband’s campaign edspledge.com lets you have your own say (almost) straight to Ed. We can thank Ed for putting personal pressure on Brown to attend - this is his own campaign for a successful deal at Copenhagen. Frustratingly, the site discusses why we need a deal, how meaningful it needs to be and how committed blah blah, but not how we’re going to achieve one. Ed and Gord need to tell us exactly what they’re going to do to ensure they succeed in getting what they want.

Pre-event meetings with over 100 government leaders take place in Pittsburgh and New York this week so hopefully Brown will spell out his intentions there, and we can evaluate them ...

The old boss
Having failed to do anything meaningful on climate during his premiership, our ex-PM has gathered together a robust team to assess the economic scenarios of climate change. Tony Blair’s Breaking the Climate Deadlock campaign puts forward arguments for bold action at Copenhagen. This latest report has commissioned some Cambridge University bigwigs to analyse the economic impact of emissions reductions. The encouraging conclusion is that investment in new green industries such as renewables and a low-carbon auto industry within the context of a worldwide agreement will yield a projected GDP increase of 0.8%. Chuck in an extra 10 million jobs and the package looks pretty attractive.

Comprehensive studies like this show leaders that committing to climate action will not bankrupt their economies or strain the workforce.  The fact that 150,000 people are already dying as a result of man made climate change, and all the top scientists in the world are warning of its catastrophic consequences clearly isn’t enough to persuade governments to question “business as usual”, maybe economic arguments will be more compelling.

The Rich…
A surprising new group has voiced its concerns about climate change -- a group of 180 of wealthy global investors. With assets topping $13 trillion and heavyweight names like HSBC and Schroders the group’s made a fervent joint statement  for global leaders to acknowledge the need for a deal at Copenhagen. Frustration at deadlocked climate talks inspired the gathering of this group in order to proclaim “We are ready and willing to invest in clean technology and low carbon solutions.”

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/sep/16/investing-climate-change

If huge investors are ready, why are politicians still scratching their heads and shrugging their shoulders? Once again, this move strengthens the ever growing economic argument for reducing emissions.
 
The Docs…
18 of the world’s leading health organisations have banded together to show leaders that failing to act on climate change will result in a “global health catastrophe.” The British Medical Journal has published a call to action warning that climate change will cause the spread of tropical disease as temperatures soar, malnutrition as food shortages become rife, and clean drinking water will become a scarcity threatening lives with diseases such as cholera. 

The research is intended not just to raise awareness with politicians, but to encourage GPs to start advising on climate friendly health, such as vegetarian diets and more exercise etc.

http://www.bmj.com/cgi/content/extract/339/sep15_1/b3672

With all this pressure from fairly sensible organisations you may be surprised to learn that the World Bank, whose aim it is to protect the poor and encourage sustainable development, is investing huge sums of cash into new fossil-fuel burning power plants.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/article6836112.ece

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