Some worrying words from a top man this week… here’s where the trouble starts.

World leaders will fail to reach a meaningful agreement at Copenhagen, says UN climate chief
“If we continue at this rate we are not going to make it.” Were the harsh words from UN Climate Change Secretariat Yvo De Boer. He could be describing the general state of our earth as much as the Copenhagen summit.

Mr De Boer was reacting after another stale climate meeting in Bonn, Germany, last week. “Selective progress” is all that has been made in climate talks so far, and whilst developed nations are discussing the urgency of climate change, we are failing to agree on actions.

This is all the more worrying as Mr De Boer pointed out there are only 15 days of pre – Copenhagen talks left before the main event. Not long to tackle the greatest challenge known to mankind.

Australia fails to sign climate agreement
Until last week, things were looking good for Australia’s stance on climate change. The current Prime Minister Kevin Rudd had reversed the long-standing opposition to climate action, and recent fires and droughts seemed to have shifted aussie consciousness to a more earth-friendly one.

So why is it that the proposed Climate Bill was flat out rejected by the Senate last week?
Mr Rudd was hoping for his Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme (CPRS) to be a centrepiece for his legacy, but instead it has been trashed by the opposition, including the Green Party. It seems proposals for Cap & Trade policies and emissions reductions to 5% below 2000 levels were too much for the conservatives, and not enough for the greens.

Australia is heavily reliant on its coal industry, which holds up the economy with some of the largest production facilities in the world. The CPRS would withdraw support for this industry, as it would for other high polluters.

This news is all the more worrying in the context of Copenhagen, as it represents a microcosm of a worldwide problem. If a single country can’t agree on a way to tackle emissions, how can 90 countries? How are we going to convince profit-seeking highly polluting industries that they must find better alternatives?
 
Chinese research sets emissions peak for 2030
The Chinese government’s attitude toward climate change has taken some big steps in the right direction over the past year, just not far enough in the right direction for most of us. A new study by some of the nation’s top climate advisors echoes this, accepting for the first time that China is the world’s greatest emitter, and even that definite steps need to be taken to reduce emissions. The feeling is that it has been well received in government.

It’s just that they are claiming 2030 should be the peak, as opposed to 2015 put forward by western science. Also, its aims to cut back are based on a 2005 benchmark, instead of the standard 1990 level benchmark accepted by the EU. That’s billions of tonnes of carbon when you consider the rate that China developed during those 15 years.

So what are we to make of this? On the one hand, it is progress. On the other, it could be a half measure to keep developed nations quiet for a few years.

As we’ve often discussed here, China rightly questions the need to invest in climate solutions over poverty reduction when its emissions have only grown as countries like the UKs hift our manufacturing, and our emissions, abroad. We should help pay for the cleanup.  Negotiating on this will be key to success at Copenhagen, as it doesn’t look like China will budge.

We shall see. The rhetoric coming from Beijing is that they are keen to build a successful agreement in Copenhagen. Whether the developed world will be able to accept its caveats we are yet to find out.

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