In December 2009 what's probably the most important environmental event in history will happen. Some 15,000 delegates from across the world will meet in Copenhagen to decide the future of our planet. The “COP15” is a UN summit gathering world leaders, key scientists, environmental campaigners and businesses setting out to replace the Kyoto protocol, to agree upon a document that will bind every nation into taking action against climate change. 

This all sounds rather dramatic doesn’t it? That’s because it is. The event is being recognised as our last chance to curb the devastating effects of climate change. If important and difficult decisions aren’t agreed, and wide scale emission cuts aren’t enforced, the earth is likely to become a merciless place to inhabit. 

So far, it’s pretty vague. Throughout the year various events, research reports, discussions and meetings will build up to the summit itself. The general aim will be to agree a set of measures along these lines: 

• All developed countries to make severe cuts in their emissions.
• All developing countries to make concerted efforts to reduce CO2, and further development to happen sustainably. (The Kyoto agreement merely required developing countries to begin monitoring emissions.)
• New funding from rich nations to poorer nations to aid sustainable development and adapt to changes already taking place.
• Measures to protect the world’s rainforests and oceans.

A large part of the discussion is likely to revolve around energy, as energy production currently accounts for around a third of the world’s emissions. But energy powers the economy, so reducing emissions will have to be a well thought out process. Companies like Good Energy will be campaigning for the switch to clean renewable energy as part of the solution.

The Kyoto protocol has been successful at raising the profile of climate issues, but not a lot else. The science and projections are out of date, and the enforcements negligable when considering what we’re up against. It doesn’t help that the two biggest emitting countries, the USA and China, refused to sign the original agreement and stick to the rules. Without cooperation from the worst offenders, there’s only so much any climate solution can offer. 

The run up to Copenhagen has been fairly uninspiring. The 2007 conference in Bali resulted mainly in an agreement to have another meeting. The 2008 summit in Poland didn’t amount to much either, with the exception of a few countries like Mexico volunteering drastic cuts off its own back. Perhaps nations were just holding off for the real deal. 

Firstly, a sense of environmental urgency is finally emerging in political dialogue. Since Kyoto was signed, climate change theory has evolved from a potential hazard to a reality that has already begun to take shape. Many parts of the world are witnessing profound changes to their environment and weather systems. Marginalised communities in the Himalayas, for example, are experiencing rapidly changing weather conditions causing flooding and landslides, creating huge challenges for their agriculture.  

It wouldn’t be accurate to pinpoint single events as indicative of overall climate change, but extreme cases like Hurricane Katrina and more recently the Australian bush fires have acted as a savage wake up call, and given more political weight to climate science. 

Now that the changing climate has become something tangible, environmentalists are being taken more seriously and scientists are becoming bolder about their predictions. Almost all countries now agree that something urgent and meaningful must be done, even the US and China. With those two at the table we have a much greater chance of success.  

So nearly everyone agrees on the need to make change. Who’s going to make those changes, and how they’re going to make them gets more complicated. This is where the conference could turn ugly. 

All eyes are on China and the US as the highest emitters. Each has a lot of power to sway whole regions of the world into action, so their positioning will be key. Environmental groups are praying that dialogue won’t be paralysed by the “we won’t do anything unless they do” mentality. The only way we’ll gain anything useful out of the conference is if major players are willing to cooperate, and make sacrifices. 

Make no mistake, this will not be easy. Europe is struggling to define its own energy cooperation at the moment, how will the whole world manage? Even if decisions on which countries are going to make cut backs, how to make them will be the next battle. Agreement on the solutions to climate change, both technological and sociological, will be a tough one to thrash out. 

To make matters worse, time is not on our side. Physical deadlines are pressing fast – we only have until 2015 to let CO2 emissions peak, then they have to be cut by at least 80% by 2050. We cannot underestimate the severity of this challenge.  

To get any meaningful result the conference will need a strong and very persuasive leader. Someone with a superior grasp on climate issues and diplomatic flair. Someone who can pull nations together to cooperate and compromise. 

The UK could be in a good position to take on this role, but any political environmental integrity that Miliband had managed to notch up in the creation of DECC has bee undermined by policy elsewhere in government on Heathrow third runway and the recent bail out of the UK car industry. It seems like this government when it gets down to the nuts and bolts, doesn’t take it seriously and is trying to return to a status quo – very unimaginative.  The UK political leadership needs to consider very carefully the structure of Britain they are putting in place.  

With clear passion for the environment driven through his Green New Deal policies President Obama, currently enjoying a honeymoon period as the new leader of the free world, is in the perfect negotiating seat. The US needs to show initiative if China is to budge. According to Jim Hansen, head of NASA and vociferous climate campaigner “Barack Obama has four years to save the world.”

The level of action needed to quell devastating climate change will mean severe sacrifices for his country, on both a personal and national scale. As the year progresses the measures that we will need to take now to hit targets will become clearer, but it is likely they will involve lifestyle changes across the board, and some tough economic decisions. President Obama will be under huge pressure from his home soil to make sure the sacrifices are not too great. Balancing carbon reductions with the desire for re-election will be a tough call. For Green Energy Republic this will be the truest test of his leadership. The key to it will be persuading the public that the cost of averting climate change now will be far less than the cost of cleaning up the mess that it causes. 

Leaders around the world will be under the same pressure, and unless this point is recognised all that will come out of Copenhagen is another document with half-arsed policies. Another conference with a huge carbon footprint. 

Momentum is starting to gather. Throughout the year we will gain a clearer picture of what will happen at the conference, and what will need to be achieved to stave off dangerous climate change. As energy policies and ideas emerge we’ll follow them closely right here. 

There’ll be a series of actions and events throughout the year that you can join in and campaign with, such as WWFs Earth Hour. We’ll keep you informed. Start today with Friends of the Earth’s Call for Climate Justice at the G20 summit.